Is performance still performing?

The performance marketing landscape is changing. Fast. For the first time in two decades Google has seen a drop in search activity, with January 2025 marking the fourth consecutive month its market share sat below 90%.

Of course they still have a monopoly, but there’s no denying this is a significant shift as new ways to seek out the content we want drives a mammoth behaviour change. 

Over a quarter of respondents to a recent study by Future Publishing claimed they would turn to AI platforms such as ChatGPT over traditional search, with four primary reasons cited:

• It delivers faster, direct results
• A simplified search process to make it more user friendly
• Results are accurate, relevant and personalised
• Summaries make complex topics more accessible

When it comes to performance, it isn’t just about who’s shouting the loudest anymore. It’s about who can deliver the most thoughtful content, and ensure it’s picked up by AI.

Google’s investments in tools such as Gemini looked to lure users back to the platform, but it’s not hard to find articles peppered with concerns regarding its accuracy and speed. Its introduction of AI overviews has also contributed to a significant jump in zero-click searches as it pushes both paid and organic listings down results pages. Not only does this impact ROI, there are also fewer opportunities to capture user intent via these traditional ad placements, and feed these learnings into a wider marketing strategy.

As well as this move to AI to find content, almost half of GenZ-ers are now thought to begin their searches on social platforms such as TikTok, Instagram and YouTube with a recent study conducted by Forbes & Talker Research suggesting a quarter find new brands on social media daily.

Recognising and responding to these shifts is critical to remain relevant and align strategies with a changing user behaviour. Not only do businesses need to diversify their online presence beyond Google, they need to ensure their content is structured in a way that’s useful enough to be referenced by AI tools. 

Note: AI needs to be embraced, but its wider impacts must also be understood. See our previous article for more insight into its environmental impact and what it could mean for your sustainability credentials.

The other critical action is to commit to brand-led advertising as part of your overall strategy. The importance of a long-term approach isn’t new news. But for a performance landscape in flux, it’s now more critical than ever that it works in partnership with brand activity to drive profits and sustainable growth.

A recent IPA study suggested that 60% of advertising payback comes through a robust, sustained approach, with WARC suggesting the median revenue ROI increase when moving from a performance only to a mixed strategy was a whopping 90%.

Create a strong brand, and you’re setting the scene for your performance marketing to work harder; every penny you spend on brand marketing isn’t just about long term brand equity – it’s an instant action to improve the efficiency of performance.

In a world of fast answers, a strong brand presence could be your unfair advantage.

Beth Menear, Account Director, One Black Bear

Source list
Yahoo tech/Tom’s Guide Special report, People are ditching Google for AI
Tech Round, The Search Shake-up
Forbes/Talker Research, Is Social The New Google
WARC, The Multiplier Effect
Profit Ability, The New Business Case For Advertising, IPA

An Intelligent Environment, or Artificial Commitments?

The world is competing in two races. One to halt the devastating effects of climate change. One for AI glory.

The rise of coverage and subsequent interest in these topics has been meteoric. But how can they work together, and in 2025 what impact might this have on our industry and the wider world. Let’s set the scene…

2024 was plagued by extreme weather affecting people across the world – floods, droughts, typhoons, and as I write this in mid January 2025, the Californian wildfires still burn. It’s perhaps then unsurprising that 2024 was the first year to go above the 1.5℃ global warming limit. As part of its commitment to achieve net zero by 2050, the UK pledged to cut emissions by 68% by 2030, though a report published in July 2024 by The Climate Change Committee suggested only one third of the initiatives designed to reach this goal were backed up by credible plans.

2024 also saw the fastest global adoption of AI, with 65% respondents to the latest McKinsey Global Survey reporting their organisations regularly use this tool, and this week Sir Kier Starmer set out his AI opportunities Action Plan. This 50 point roadmap will see artificial intelligence ‘mainlined into the veins of the nation’, and ensure the UK doesn’t fall behind the likes of the USA and China when it comes to significant advances in this field.

The best of team mates, or the fiercest of rivals

Opinions on AI are polarised when it comes to its relationship with the environment. The World Economic Forum suggests AI has ‘transformational potential’ in the area, from monitoring melting icebergs and enhancing waste management efficiencies to mapping deforestation and ocean litter. Others warn AI is killing sustainability as it increases surges in energy demand with huge costs to the environment due to the high CO2 emissions the technology requires.

It’s arguable this could be fuelling the new trend of brands greenhushing as they intentionally hide their climate commitments. The race for AI dominance has seen the global emissions targets for both Google and Meta face huge setbacks, while Microsoft admits emissions have grown by almost 30% since 2020 through its reliance on AI datacentres that require incredible amounts of water to cool their servers.

And we’re all contributing to these climate impacts. One ChatGPT query requires ten times the amount of energy to process as a google search. 50 prompts on ChatGPT uses 500ml of water. Just read that again then look at your water bottle. It’s baffling.

So, what does this mean for our industry, and our clients?

Advertisers that are committed to sustainability goals must understand and monitor their AI carbon footprint. In 2025 and beyond this technology will play a greater role in content creation, audience tracking, ad personalisation, insights and measurement. So as an industry we’re walking a tightrope. We’re employed to drive growth, and must therefore adopt the opportunities AI presents us, though as brand guardians we must realise how this could work against sustainability goals.

It’s interesting then that a report in The Marketers Toolkit 2025 (WARC) suggested that even with the rise of programmatic practices being used across mass marketing channels such as radio, TV and OOH, less than a third of those surveyed saw AI sustainability concerns influencing media buying in 2025. Again if we’re looking for a tangible statistic, a 2023 study by Moeve suggests an ad campaign generates the same emissions as that of seven people over a year. Surely, then, if the industry continues to shy away from the effects of AI impact it would not only draw negative opinion from regulators, but also its clients, and their consumers alike. AI usage should be incorporated into ESG frameworks as a basic expectation.

‘Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted, the problem is I don’t know which half’

Well, maybe AI could help us answer this question, while having a positive effect on the planet if it’s used in the right way. Where the technology is used to optimise audience targeting, ad placement and budgets, we could see fewer, more efficient campaigns where wasted impressions are reduced. And we’ve already seen creatively what AI can achieve; a personal standout being AKQAs ‘Never Done Evolving’ 50th anniversary video for Nike which saw Serena Williams (1999) in a match against Serena Williams (2017) that used machine learning to model her changing tennis style based on archived footage. AI allowed for something that wouldn’t just have been budget prohibitive, but would have been creatively impossible. 

This type of approach however negates the need for traditional production, so while arguably more sustainable, its impact on jobs and actual human interaction must not be ignored.

Surely we want to be winners in both races, don’t we?

Finding a balance where AI’s contribution to sustainable practices in our industry and beyond outweighs its impact is critical in the race to tackle the climate emergency. And the tangled web of conflicting objectives and priorities in the global landscape will make for a fascinating watch. Will the 2020s be a decisive decade for climate change, and will AI ultimately help or hinder? There are two things that are clear though. Firstly, we must adopt the responsibilities we have as an industry to balance our desire for effective marketing with our commitment to sustainable practices. Secondly, if we don’t we’ll be one step closer to the point where this decisive action will no longer be an option.

Beth Menear, Account Director, One Black Bear

 

Source List
BBC Climate & BBC Verify data journalism teams
AI Opportunities Action Plan, Gov.uk
The state of AI in early 2024, QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey
9 Ways AI is helping tackle climate change, World Economic Forum, Emerging Technologies
The GEISTE report 2025, WARC
The Marketers Toolkit 2025, WARC
Greenintelligence.org
The footprint that advertising does not want to leave, Moeve Global

The Social Saga Part One

On Friday 13th I watched something truly horrifying. Remember that scene in Scream? Well Channel 4’s ‘Swiped’ just took scary-phone-time to a whole new level.

The show sees a class of year 8’s give up smart devices for three weeks, and is littered with spine-chilling facts about phone usage and the types of content not just available, but targeted at this age group. It’s not all social media, but needless to say these platforms make up a big part of the problem that’s devastating parents.

So, as I lay gobsmacked on the sofa, I started googling more about Australia’s online safety amendment bill, a fascinating legislation responding to the “clear, causal link between the rise of social media and the harm to the mental health of young Australians” according to Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Due to come into force towards the end of 2025, ‘age-assurance technology’ will restrict users under 16 from accessing social media platforms, with hefty fines dished out to companies that fail to comply. It’s VERY unclear how this will all work, how it will be regulated, and who will need to adhere to the law – for example, we already know YouTube will be exempt due to its educational purpose. Ethical questions are also being raised by those opposing the ban concerning young adult’s rights to free speech and the access of information; this is a debate that will rage on through 2025.

In readiness for the change though, content and targeting strategies are being urgently reviewed. This is a huge shift that could not only impact millions of $ of revenue, but also “redefine how brands engage with audiences and how social platforms operate” according to Jessica White, vp of creative and media at digital agency Dept (Aus).

And while it appears on the face of it that Australia is a leader in this area, both the US and Canada have discussions open regarding the banning of TikTok. Norway announced plans to ban kids under 15 from using social media, while France is testing a smartphone ban for kids under 15 in a limited number of schools – a policy that could be rolled out nationwide if successful.

So, what about us? Well, last month the technology secretary advised a possible social media ban for under 16s was “on the table”, though the lack of evidence concerning its negative impact will inevitably see the proposal drawn out for a while yet.

I’ve worked in this industry for ten years, and I don’t think there’s one campaign I’ve been a part of where social media hasn’t featured. It’s ability to reach an audience, it’s constant learning, optimisation, management – it’s logistically astonishing and emotionally terrifying. And with the meteoric rise in influencer marketing the channel is reaching more people in more ways than ever before. It’s no wonder then that last year social media accounted for a third of the UK’s total digital ad spend – an eye-watering £9.4billion*.

I’d love to write a snappy conclusion to this, but I genuinely can’t – because even the people that are working to push these laws through still don’t have the answers. But whatever your opinion, this is a move that will have repercussions across the world for companies, agencies, content creators, the list goes on. But on a personal note, I can’t help but feel the biggest effect of all could (and should) be on the children this type of initiative is designed to protect.

I’ll see you for part two in mid-2025.

Don’t have nightmares.

Beth Menear – AD

*Source – Digital 2023: The United Kingdom – We Are Social & Meltwater.